The USA-China trade policy uncertainty and inference for the major global south indexes

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dc.authoridalola, andrew/0000-0001-5355-3707
dc.authoridAkdağ, Saffet/0000-0001-9576-6786
dc.contributor.authorAkdag, Saffet
dc.contributor.authorYildirim, Hakan
dc.contributor.authorAlola, Andrew Adewale
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-11T19:51:55Z
dc.date.available2024-09-11T19:51:55Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentİstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractPurpose The recent dynamics of trade policy, especially that is associated with the United States of America (USA) and China, has not only triggered policy adjustments in two economies, it has also implied an uncertainty spillover to other economies across the globe. Consequently, the current study attempts to examine the effect of uncertainties in the USA-China trade policies on stock market indexes. In addition, the cointegration evidence between the USA-China trade policy uncertainty index and of the leading Global South fragile quintet (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey) stock market indices is investigated. Design/methodology/approach Mainly, the FMOLS and DOLS Granger causality analysis with cointegration coefficient estimators were employed for the dataset over the monthly data period of March 2003 and July 2019. Findings Accordingly, the study found a long-term relationship between the USA-China Trade Policy Uncertainty index and the stock exchange indexes. In addition, a causal relationship was established from the change in the USA-China Trade Policy Uncertainty index to the change in the stock market indexes of almost all of the examined countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey). In addition, the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach further offers evidence of asymmetric relationship among the examined indicators. Originality/value Moreover, this study contributed to the existing literature because it employed the indexes of BIST100, BOVESPA, BSE Sensex 30, IDX Composite and South Africa 40 in a novel approach. Thus, the study posited a useful policy guideline for associated economic uncertainties arising from the trade dispute, such as the case of the world's two largest trading giants or partners (i.e. the USA and China).en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1108/JEAS-05-2020-0077
dc.identifier.endpage77en_US
dc.identifier.issn1026-4116
dc.identifier.issn2054-6246
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/Aen_US
dc.identifier.startpage60en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-05-2020-0077
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11363/7855
dc.identifier.volume39en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000657612900001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/Aen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherEmerald Group Publishing Ltden_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Economic And Administrative Sciencesen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.snmz20240903_Gen_US
dc.subjectTrade policiesen_US
dc.subjectUncertaintyen_US
dc.subjectStock indexen_US
dc.subjectCausality analysisen_US
dc.subjectCointegration analysisen_US
dc.subjectC22en_US
dc.subjectD22en_US
dc.subjectD80en_US
dc.subjectF13en_US
dc.subjectG23en_US
dc.titleThe USA-China trade policy uncertainty and inference for the major global south indexesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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